Sunday, May 25, 2008

Forecasting Sales & Revenues

I strongly recommend building your revenue projections from the bottom up.

By this I mean estimating unit volumes and unit price to arrive at total sales by product/service line.

Forecasting at this grass roots level will enable you to perform rapid sanity checks on your assumptions against the market as a whole and against competitors.

Forecasting in this way also enables you to compute more accurately the resources and people required to deliver those sales so that you can make cost assumptions (operating expenses, capital expenditures, working capital needs, etc.).

If you are analyzing an investment opportunity, you should take the same approach. Analyze the company's projected units, unit prices and total sales and the trends relative to the history of the company and the market.
Cheers
Tom

No comments: